Russian Gas Flow to Europe: A Tenuous Balance in Tense Times

Russian gas exports to Europe through Ukraine have decreased slightly, with stable flows to and from Slovakia. Gazprom's deliveries are expected to decline as the five-year transit deal with Ukraine concludes. Additionally, a contractual dispute halted supplies to Austria's OMV.

Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine have shown a slight dip, with figures down more than 3% on Sunday and Monday compared to recent months. Despite this, nominations for gas moving to and from Slovakia remained steady, according to data sourced from Gazprom and a pipeline operator.

Gazprom, the major Russian gas producer, declared on Monday it would deliver 40.8 million cubic meters of gas to Europe through Ukraine, marking an increase from 40.6 million on Sunday, yet constituting a decline from the over 42 million seen recently. In November, Russia ceased gas exports to Austria's OMV following a contractual dispute and a court ruling that awarded the Vienna-based company 230 million euros ($242 million) concerning irregular deliveries to its German subsidiary in 2022. Other buyers have partially compensated for these shortages by purchasing leftover Russian gas, maintaining consistent flows from Siberia.

The gas transit route through Ukraine is scheduled to end on December 31, as the five-year deal with Kyiv is set to expire. Amidst the ongoing military conflict, Ukraine has made clear its reluctance to engage in negotiations with Russia. Meanwhile, data from Eustream, a transmission system operator, indicated that gas flows into Slovakia from Ukraine on Monday remained consistent with Sunday's levels, as did the flows from Slovakia to both Austria and the Czech Republic.

(With inputs from agencies.)