Southeast Asia's Growing Coal Trade: Trends and Projections

Southeast Asian countries, notably Vietnam and Philippines, are expected to increase coal trade and consumption despite China approaching its peak demand. By 2030, the region's coal imports are projected to grow to 170.9 million metric tons from 140.9 million tons in 2023. Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia are key contributors to this trend.

Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines, are set to increase their coal trade and consumption in the coming decade, according to industry officials, despite China's demand nearing its peak. The Indonesian Coal Miners Association (ICMA) projects China's and India's imports to peak in 2025, impacting global coal trade volumes, as presented by its Chairman Priyadi at the Coaltrans Asia conference.

The ICMA also anticipates that annual coal imports by Southeast Asian nations, including Vietnam and the Philippines, will grow by nearly 3% annually, reaching 170.9 million metric tons by 2030. Vietnam, Southeast Asia's fastest-growing economy, is expected to become a promising market for coal, driven by increasing power generation needs.

According to Dinh Quang Trung, Deputy General Manager of coal trading at state-run Vinacomin, Vietnam aims to import 66 million tons by the year's end, up from 47.8 million tons in 2023. Other Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines and Malaysia are also seeing significant growth in coal imports. China's thermal coal imports are expected to rise by 6.3% year-over-year to 391 million tons in 2024, and India's demand is projected to grow throughout the decade. Despite no new coal-fired capacity being added, Southeast Asian nations are maximizing the utilization of existing plants to meet electricity demands.

(With inputs from agencies.)