IEA Forecasts Drop in 2024 Oil Demand Amid Chinese Slowdown

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 barrels per day, now expecting a rise of 900,000 bpd. The revision reflects a deceleration in Chinese demand due to a macroeconomic slowdown and increased electric vehicle adoption. The IEA predicts global oil demand will plateau by decade's end.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd), bringing it to 900,000 bpd. This adjustment represents a 7.2% decrease from its previous projection, according to the agency's latest monthly oil market report.

The IEA, based in Paris, attributed the revision chiefly to a slowdown in Chinese demand. The agency now projects Chinese oil demand to rise by only 180,000 bpd in 2024, as the country's macroeconomic challenges persist and the adoption of electric vehicles surges. "With the steam seemingly running out of Chinese oil demand growth, and only modest increases or declines in most other countries, current trends reinforce our expectation that global demand will plateau by the end of this decade," the IEA stated.

Moreover, the IEA has maintained its 2025 demand growth forecast at approximately 950,000 bpd. However, it cautioned that the global oil market could experience an oversupply next year if the OPEC+ producer group follows through on plans to reverse voluntary output cuts.

(With inputs from agencies.)