Emerging Markets Struggle Amid Currency Slips and Political Uncertainties

Most stocks and currencies in emerging markets slipped, with notable declines in the yuan and the rand. China's upcoming Third Plenum is expected to impact economic policies, while potential political changes in the U.S. add uncertainty. Central and eastern European currencies also faced declines ahead of key economic decisions.

Most stocks and currencies in emerging markets slipped on Tuesday, with the yuan trading at a fresh seven-month low, while the rand slipped as investors assessed possible challenges faced by the country's first coalition government. China's currency edged lower against the dollar, following the local central bank's shift in daily guidance that analysts say indicates authorities are willing to allow the yuan to ease further, while investors also contemplated the prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency.

The communist party's upcoming Third Plenum, later in the month, is high on the agenda, which will focus on policies on further deepening reforms and promoting the modernisation of China. "Sluggish economic activity in China accompanied by the housing market deep in the doldrums requires the People's Bank of China to maintain loose monetary policy at the time when interest rates in the U.S. are significantly higher," said Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at In Touch Capital Markets.

"The prospects of Trump returning to the White House, based on available opinion polls, also do not bode well for the yuan." The former president had hiked tariffs during his tenure, sparking a trade war between the two biggest economies.

South Africa's rand dropped 0.4% as Monday's initial pop gave into caution with markets considering possible challenges to the government of national unity (GNU) after President Cyril Ramaphosa unveiled his cabinet. MSCI's index tracking emerging market currencies slipped 0.2% against the dollar, while an index tracking equities lost 0.6%.

In central and east Europe, Hungary's forint led declines, dropping 0.3% against the euro. Poland's zloty slipped 0.2% as the local central bank kicked off its two-day monetary policy meeting, where economists widely expect borrowing costs to be left unchanged at 5.75%.

Turkey's lira dipped 0.1% to the dollar. Bankers said that the local central bank's net foreign reserves, excluding swaps, fell $1 billion in the previous week. Ghana's cedi was little changed after the International Monetary Fund revised the country's annual growth forecast to 3.1% from 2.8%, citing the West African nation's improved economic stability.

"A robust growth outturn will help offset some debt restructuring slippage ... if we cannot secure the needed debt restructuring amount, the stronger GDP growth will help keep the ratio in check," said Michael Asare, economic and fixed income analyst at Apakan Securities. Meanwhile, prices of oil, a key resource for developing economies, hovered over $80 in anticipation of summer demand, which could further pressure the local currencies of the countries that are mostly net importers of the resource.

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