EUROPE GAS-Prices mixed on Norwegian flows, milder weather forecasts

The British day-ahead contract rose by 10.00 pence to 180 pence per therm by 0803 GMT, while the within-day contract was 18.00 pence higher at 180 pence/therm. Norwegian exports to Britain are down 7 million cubic metres (mcm) at 69 mcm/day, Refinitiv Eikon data showed, as gas was re-routed to continental Europe amid some maintenance outages.

British prompt wholesale gas prices rose on Wednesday morning on higher gas-for-power demand and lower Norwegian flows, while Dutch prices inched down on expectations of milder weather. The British day-ahead contract rose by 10.00 pence to 180 pence per therm by 0803 GMT, while the within-day contract was 18.00 pence higher at 180 pence/therm.

Norwegian exports to Britain are down 7 million cubic metres (mcm) at 69 mcm/day, Refinitiv Eikon data showed, as gas was re-routed to continental Europe amid some maintenance outages. An outage at the Kollsness gas processing plant has begun and will last three days.

However, medium-range storage withdrawals can help when the UK system is short and stocks remain healthy at 97% full. Gas-for-power generation is also forecast 11 mcm higher at 75 mcm/day due to a fall in wind output.

Peak wind generation is forecast at nearly 10 gigawatts (GW) on Wednesday and 8.5 GW on Thursday, Elexon data showed, out of total metered capacity of around 20 GW. In the Dutch market, the November contract inched down by 1.25 euros to 158.50 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) while the December contract was 2.50 euros lower at 172.50 euros/MWh.

"Temperatures are forecast to rise above the seasonal norm from the day-ahead and remain there until the end of our two-week forecast horizon," said Wayne Bryan, head of European gas research at Refinitiv. In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was 0.88 euro lower at 65.46 euros a tonne.

 

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