Ficci survey projects FY20 GDP growth at 5 pc, to improve to 5.5 pc in FY21

Industry body Ficci on Wednesday said its Economic Outlook Survey has projected the country's annual median GDP growth for 2019-20 at 5 per cent, in line with the projections made by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO). The survey has put the median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities at 2.6 per cent for 2019-20, the industry and services sector at 3.5 per cent and 7.2 per cent, respectively, during the current year.

"Growth is likely to improve to 5.5 per cent in 2020-21 as per the projections," the survey said. Further as per the survey, the economic growth has been pegged at 4.7 per cent for the third quarter of 2019-20.

The survey was conducted during December and January 2019-20 amongst economists belonging to the industry, banking and financial services sector, Ficci said. As per the first advance estimates of the national income released by the NSO, India's GDP growth is seen dipping to an 11-year low of 5 per cent in the current fiscal, mainly due to poor showing by manufacturing and construction sectors.

The survey further said concerns remain on external front with exports projected to contract in 2019-20. Merchandise exports are expected to decline by 2.1 per cent, while imports are expected to decline 5.5 per cent during the year, it said.

Moreover, median current account deficit forecast was pegged at 1.4 per cent of GDP for 2019-20. "Moderation in global growth forecast, escalating geo-political tensions, and uncertainty around trade deal between US-China and BREXIT outcome still form major risk factors to India's growth in 2020," it said.

Participating economists said that a shortfall in government's revenue collections seems imminent this year on the back of lower than anticipated nominal growth. To augment government's revenue collections, they called for measures to boost the country's nominal GDP growth.

Citing weak consumption demand as a major impediment to India's growth, economists cautioned against any changes in the GST rates to improve revenue collections as it would prove to be counterproductive, Ficci said. Economists recommended undertaking expansionary fiscal and monetary policies along with a slew of reforms to tackle the structural problems facing the economy.

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