Global Currencies in Flux: The Impact of Trade Policies and Fiscal Changes

The dollar is struggling against major currency peers due to erratic U.S. trade policies and weak economic data, while the euro benefits from Germany's fiscal changes. Analysts predict stronger euro and yen positions by year-end. Global interest rate moves and consumption strategies are also affecting currency markets.

On Monday, the dollar hovered near a five-month low against major currencies as President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies and soft economic data took their toll. The euro, benefiting from domestic drivers, is faring better, last recorded at $1.0876. Despite slight dips, it's close to hitting its highest point since October 11.

Similarly, the Japanese yen witnessed softness at 148.94 per dollar but remains stronger having recently peaked in five months. These movements have driven the dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six major counterparts, to linger just under a five-month low.

Currency market shifts have defied expectations related to Trump's economic strategies, as pointed out by Societe Generale analysts. They have revised currency forecasts due to Germany's fiscal changes while maintaining caution around the U.S. economy's relative fragility. The firm sees significant year-end gains for the euro and yen.

(With inputs from agencies.)