Rising Steel Prices: The Impact of Safeguard Duty on 2025 Market Dynamics

Steel prices in 2025 are poised to increase if a safeguard duty on imports is imposed. Despite global price decline, domestic demand in India's infrastructure sector supports growth. Competition among mills may limit price hikes, but demand in developing markets prevents a global steep decline.

Steel prices in 2025 are projected to rise significantly if the proposed safeguard duty on imports is enacted, according to Crisil. Domestic prices remain under pressure from a global steel price decline, with an anticipated increase of 4-6% hinging on the duty's implementation.

The newly launched capacities by mills will increase supply, leading to reduced flat steel prices despite remaining above the 2024 average. Intense competition among mills is likely to restrain significant price increases.

Additionally, while global steel demand is set to decline, India's shift towards steel-intensive construction continues to drive demand, counteracting potential downturns, according to the rating agency's analysis.

(With inputs from agencies.)