Oil Market Set for Surplus in 2025 Despite OPEC+ Cuts: ING Report

The global oil market is forecasted to enter surplus in 2025, despite OPEC+ extending supply cuts. A report from ING suggests this modest surplus will put pressure on prices. However, geopolitical tensions and changes in sanctions could disrupt these projections, challenging OPEC+'s strategy and markets stability.

In a recent report, ING projects the global oil market will experience a surplus by 2025, despite OPEC+ extending supply cuts to stabilize prices. This modest surplus is predicted to apply downward pressure on oil prices, with Brent crude likely to average around USD 71 per barrel next year.

Risks such as geopolitical tensions and changes in sanctions enforcement could disrupt these forecasts. The surplus estimate for 2025 has been adjusted to approximately 500,000 b/d, down from over 1 million b/d. This revision comes on the heels of OPEC+'s decision to postpone the return of 2.2 million b/d in voluntary cuts.

While non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2025, surpassing demand growth under 1 million b/d, the market may continue feeling pressure from surplus conditions. OPEC+'s protracted supply increases—now set over 18 months instead of 12—underscore the complex challenges in balancing compliance among its members.

(With inputs from agencies.)