FOREX-Dollar rises, bitcoin retreats after rally on Trump tariff hopes

The U.S. dollar rose to a four-month high against major peers on Tuesday, while bitcoin pared recent gains from a record rally buoyed by tariff expectations from the incoming Donald Trump administration.

The U.S. dollar rose to a four-month high against major peers on Tuesday, while bitcoin pared recent gains from a record rally buoyed by tariff expectations from the incoming Donald Trump administration. Bitcoin dropped from a new all-time peak of $89,982 and was last down 1.2% to $86,945. Trump has vowed to make the United States "the crypto capital of the planet".

"It's still an extension of the post-election moves; the economic calendar has been relatively light although it's picking up later in the week but for now the market is focusing on the implications of a second Trump term, particularly policies that would be positive for the dollar such as potential higher tariffs," said Vassili Serebriakov, an FX strategist at UBS in New York. Higher tariffs are expected to push up prices, leaving the Federal Reserve less scope to cut interest rates.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers rose 0.53% to 105.98, hitting its highest level since early July. Trump's Republican Party will hold a slim majority in both houses of Congress, allowing the president-elect to push his agenda cutting taxes and regulation after he takes office in January.

"There's been a broad move in the dollar that started before the election and it probably got an added boost because it looks like we're moving to a red sweep scenario, which is broadly seen as positive for the dollar," Serebriakov added. Trump has warned that the euro bloc will "pay a big price" for not buying enough American exports, with cars a particular target. He has threatened China with blanket 60% tariffs.

Since his election last week, the euro has languished at a seven-month trough and the yuan slumped to its lowest in more than three months, with Europe and China both targets of potential Trump tariffs. The euro is feeling additional pressure from political uncertainty in Germany, the bloc's biggest economy. Germany is set to hold fresh elections on Feb. 23, which will be eleven weeks after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's governing coalition.

The euro sank to $1.06065 on Tuesday, the lowest since mid-April, and was last down 0.41% at $1.061. Sterling dropped 0.61% to $1.2791 after data showed regular UK wage growth slowed and unemployment rose, with the pound also feeling the heat from the dollar's rally.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar rose 0.46% to 154.41 yen. The Japanese currency dropped to a three-month low of 154.715 per dollar last week. The onshore yuan finished the domestic session at 7.2378 per dollar, its lowest close since Aug. 1. The Aussie dollar - which tends to be swayed by the economic outlook for China, Australia's top trading partner - weakened 0.52% versus the greenback to $0.6542.

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