Tajikistan’s Green Transition: World Bank’s Report Highlights Pathways for Economic Renewal and Resilience Against Climate Risks

While Tajikistan’s government has outlined a green economic agenda, the CCDR recommends additional reforms to fully capitalize on a climate-resilient development model.

The World Bank Group’s recently published Tajikistan Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) emphasizes the strategic opportunity for Tajikistan to enhance economic growth and safeguard its people by addressing the risks of climate change. Released as climate impacts are becoming increasingly severe, the report underscores the need for comprehensive reforms to set the nation on a path of sustainable, resilient growth that could ripple across Central Asia.

While Tajikistan’s government has outlined a green economic agenda, the CCDR recommends additional reforms to fully capitalize on a climate-resilient development model. World Bank Country Manager for Tajikistan, Ozan Sevimli, highlighted the report's value: “Tajikistan urgently needs an economic reset to overcome development challenges and mitigate the escalating impacts of climate change.” The report provides a framework to initiate a transition that would create jobs, attract private investment, and help Tajikistan reach its climate resilience targets.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

Although Tajikistan ranks low globally in greenhouse gas emissions, it remains highly vulnerable to climate-induced disasters. Already prone to natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, and landslides, Tajikistan risks seeing real GDP fall by 5-6% by 2050 due to climate-related infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, and declining livestock productivity. In addition, the Vakhsh River Basin, where 90% of the nation’s electricity is generated, faces increasing climate vulnerabilities, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable energy solutions.

Essential Reforms for a Green Economy

The CCDR calls for several reforms to prepare Tajikistan for a climate-resilient future, including:

Institutional Strengthening: Improved regulatory frameworks and institutional capacity will be essential for effective climate planning. Creating incentives for climate finance can stimulate private-sector contributions, especially for energy, agriculture, and industrial projects.

Inclusive Climate Strategies: New labor programs to reskill adults for green jobs, along with strengthened social support systems, are recommended to ensure the green transition benefits all communities, including those most vulnerable to climate impacts.

Water-Energy-Food Nexus Focus: Investments in modern irrigation and resilient agricultural practices, along with enhanced water storage infrastructure, could boost food security and climate adaptation. Restoration of degraded lands through nature-based solutions is also advised.

Transition to Low-Carbon Development: Prioritizing renewable energy sources like hydropower and solar, and focusing on energy-efficient technology and sustainable agricultural methods could enhance job creation, improve exports, and address air quality challenges.

Financing the Green Transition

To realize its green agenda, Tajikistan will need approximately $17 billion in additional financing for climate adaptation and mitigation measures from 2025 to 2050. To mobilize this, the report suggests focusing on the private sector, particularly in key areas like energy, industry, and agriculture, while improving regulatory frameworks to attract investment. Further support through concessional loans, grants, and partnerships with international climate funds is also essential to bridge the funding gap.

Tajikistan’s Path Forward

According to Bahodur Sheralizoda, Chair of Tajikistan’s Environmental Protection Committee, the CCDR offers a robust plan to reduce Tajikistan’s climate vulnerability while fostering economic resilience. “This report is vital as it recommends ways to improve efficiency, adopt technology, and create green jobs in our economy, all of which are crucial for Tajikistan’s adaptation efforts,” he noted.

The World Bank’s CCDRs are essential tools for identifying climate and development intersections in vulnerable regions. They provide actionable insights and serve as public documents to encourage collaboration among governments, citizens, private sectors, and international development partners.

For Tajikistan, implementing the CCDR’s recommendations could mean transforming climate risks into drivers of economic renewal and resilience, setting the nation as a model for sustainable development across Central Asia.