WTO Adjusts Global Trade Forecast Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

The WTO has slightly increased its 2024 global trade growth forecast to 2.7%, despite geopolitical tensions posing risks. Asia's exports rebound, driven by major economies like China and Singapore. The 2025 forecast has been revised down to 3%, with services trade showing a favorable outlook.

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has updated its global trade forecast for 2024, raising it marginally to 2.7% from the previous estimate of 2.6%. This revision comes in the face of persistent and substantial risks posed by rising geopolitical tensions.

Initially, in April, the WTO predicted a 2.6% growth rate for 2023. However, the outlook for 2025 has taken a hit, with projections now at 3% compared to the earlier anticipated 3.3% growth.

A notable rebound in Asia's export sector has occurred this year, led by manufacturing powerhouses like China, Singapore, and Korea. The report suggests that countries like Singapore, Malaysia, India, and Viet Nam are becoming integral in connecting economies across geopolitical blocs, potentially reducing fragmentation risks.

According to the WTO Global Trade Outlook, services trade has a brighter future compared to goods trade. In Europe, the import sector, particularly in machinery, has sharply declined, reflecting a significant drop in imports from China.

India's trade statistics from April to August reveal a 1.14% rise in exports to USD 178.68 billion and a 7% increase in imports, reaching USD 295.32 billion. The merchandise trade deficit for this period surged to USD 116.64 billion from the previous year's USD 99.16 billion.

(With inputs from agencies.)