Mixed Reactions to India's August 2024 Trade Data Highlight Export Resilience and Global Challenges

India's August 2024 trade data shows mixed reactions from industry experts. PHDCCI praised the 5.3% year-on-year export growth, while FIEO expressed concerns over a 9% decline in goods exports due to global economic uncertainties. The engineering sector remains optimistic, despite challenges from Chinese competition and geopolitical conflicts.

India's trade data for August 2024 has sparked varied reactions among industry experts, revealing a complex picture of both resilience and concern.

The PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI) commended India's robust 5.3% year-on-year growth in exports from April to August 2024, where the cumulative export value reached USD 374.3 billion, up from USD 350.1 billion in the previous year. Sanjeev Agrawal, PHDCCI President, attributed this boost to increasing exports of electronic goods, tea, coffee, spices, and cereal preparations, predicting continued export strength as India's supply chains solidify.

Conversely, the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) presented a more cautious outlook, noting a 9% year-on-year decline in goods exports for August 2024, amounting to USD 34.71 billion. FIEO President, Ashwani Kumar, cited global economic uncertainties, falling commodity prices, and logistical challenges as key contributors to this decline. He emphasized that international trade disruptions and reduced crude and metal prices have adversely affected export values, and higher freight costs have driven some exporters to focus on the domestic market.

Meanwhile, the engineering sector showed signs of optimism. Arun Kumar Garodia, Chairman of the Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC) India, reported a 4.36% growth in engineering exports in August 2024, reaching USD 9.44 billion. Cumulatively, engineering exports totaled USD 46.41 billion for the April-August period, marking a 4.22% year-on-year increase. However, Garodia noted that this performance could have been stronger if not for competitive pricing from China and geopolitical conflicts that affected iron and steel exports. He also expressed cautious optimism, citing positive measures from the 2024 Budget and potential global economic improvements, while urging a review of free trade agreements to tackle issues with Chinese steel entering India through FTA routes.

As industry leaders evaluate the mixed signals from the latest trade data, the future of India's export sector will hinge on global market conditions and domestic policy actions.

(With inputs from agencies.)